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The 3rd Tier Impact of Covid - China's Gift

Tuesday 10 March 2020

In Strategic Futures thinking the aim is to get ahead of the curve to better inform Strategic Planning. The current Virus could well trigger the collapse of Office Space demand in city centres, once and for all

Strategic Plans that are better informed by futures thinking tend to help organisations prepare for and avoid the undesirable, whilst maximising awareness of opportunities to be pursued.

The Covid19 novel #CaronaVirus is a perfect opportunity for people to explore the 'what if...' scenarios. In this vignette I'm suggesting that Office Rents could collapse and never recover because of the unexpected way in which the Carona Virus could influence change.

1 Virus hits driving demand/need for people to work from home

2. Human Resources function and CEOs who have been so horrendously lacking in enabling TRUE work from home opportunties discover that, by and large, most people tasked to working from home, WORKED effectively

3. Post pandemic, more demand from the workplace exists for employees wanting to work from home.

4. Finance discovers a massive opportunity - down size the existing office rental space by 50% by allowing staff to work from home

5. Office rental markets collapse

6. With less cost pressures forcing people to drive to work, more income is available for localised spending

7. Local spending increases; employee satisfaction increases, productivity increases

8. Office blocks are converted into residential areas or vertical farms

A stretch you say? Maybe, but the Hairy Eyeballs approach to management we've had since Wedgewood opened the first ever factory, has NOT evolved beyond that 1780s mindset. We still think staring at the back of people's heads = 'productivity' despite the FACT that employees who drive 60, 90 or 120 miniutes to work at peak hour and then the same on the way home, are more likely to be stressed, take longer to get into their rhythm at work and more distracted thinking about out how to leave early to beat the traffic. This little Covid19 Carona Virus might be the thing that finally cracks that egg.

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